Following the missile and aerial strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the world has entered a new phase — one that risks triggering a third world war.
The official goal of this “operation” is to halt the development of Iran’s nuclear program, destroy the infrastructure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and possibly change the political regime in Tehran by removing the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
On Iran’s western borders (Iraq, Kuwait), limited troop movements have already been detected, including deployments of U.S. Marines and allied special forces. All signs indicate preparations for a limited ground operation. The initial phase may involve strikes on IRGC bases and air defense systems, followed by the possible occupation of select zones to create a “buffer zone” and ignite armed uprisings within the country, ultimately attempting regime change through military means.
To this end, there are already preparations to supply and distribute weapons across Iranian regions to groups opposed to the central government.
However, in the shadow of these events, a less visible but potentially catastrophic process is unfolding — the destabilization of Central Asia via Afghanistan and Turkmenistan.
The military operation against Iran is already generating flows of refugees. Tens of thousands are fleeing from Iran’s border regions — Sunni-majority and ethnically distinct from the Persian core — including Sistan and Baluchistan, Khorasan, Bushehr, and Khuzestan. The main route runs through Afghanistan, which, under Taliban rule, has become a loosely controlled territory open to informal migration and infiltration by radical elements.
Thus, Afghanistan is rapidly becoming a transit zone. On one side, Afghan migrants who had previously worked in Iran are returning home. On the other, Iranian refugees — including Sunni Baluchis and Kurds — are heading toward the borders, crossing provinces like Nimruz, Herat, and Farah, eventually moving toward Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.
The scenario closely resembles the Syrian crisis of 2014–2015 but with even denser layers of risk. According to some estimates, if the situation in Iran deteriorates amid a forecasted U.S. ground operation and ensuing chaos, up to 3–5 million people may move northward. Among them will not only be women and children — but also potential militants infiltrating under the guise of refugees, including elements from ISIS-Khorasan and other terrorist networks.
Arguably, the most dangerous beneficiary of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is ISIS–Wilayat Khorasan in Afghanistan, which considers Shiite Iran — not Israel or the U.S. — its primary enemy. As early as the beginning of 2024, it claimed responsibility for the deadly terrorist attack near General Qassem Soleimani’s shrine in Kerman.
Now, amidst destabilization in the Middle East, ISIS is gaining an opportunity not only to strike but also to recruit, build logistics networks, and expand online propaganda in multiple languages. The target audience is the youth of Muslim-majority countries — Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia — who are vulnerable to politicized and religious narratives.
This is not a hypothetical risk: in 2024 alone, no fewer than 15 planned ISIS attacks in Central Asia were documented, some of which were to be executed via Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. ISIS, possibly functioning as a tool in a larger strategic game, is evolving into a transnational ideological virus, using digital radicalization and targeted terror attacks across Central Asia.
The Taliban currently maintains formal neutrality, issuing statements of support for Palestine and condemnation of Western aggression against Iran. But as the conflict escalates, volunteer units are already forming within the Taliban ranks, ready to “defend Islam” against the U.S. and Israel.
Some small groups are reportedly moving toward the Iranian border to join allied forces. Meanwhile, clandestine evacuations of sensitive cargo and personnel from Iran to Afghanistan have begun. If the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran evolves into a prolonged ground conflict, the Taliban will face a dilemma: either maintain pragmatic neutrality and risk losing control over segments of its military leadership, or support the “resistance” alongside Iran and Yemen — thereby becoming entangled in a broader war with the West. The latter is increasingly likely.
ISIS’s growing activity in Afghanistan, backed by external financial and technical support, is likely designed to tie the Taliban’s hands and provoke internal instability.
The war involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran is not just a Middle Eastern tragedy. It is drawing in neighboring states — Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan — and threatens to become a systemic crisis in the heart of Eurasia. Its consequences are not only geopolitical but also demographic, economic, ideological, and humanitarian.
If Central Asia fails to grasp the scale of the threat in time, the front line of this new war could move beyond the Persian Gulf — potentially through Surkhandarya or even the Fergana Valley.
A full-scale war involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran has already opened a second front in the East — through Afghanistan and Central Asia, implicitly targeting both China and Russia.
We are approaching a moment when the protection of our southern borders is not a matter of goodwill but one of survival and statehood for every country in our region. Central Asia must not view Iran merely as a victim, but as the first domino in a potentially catastrophic cascade.